Fed Watch

The Fed’s Rate Is Sitting Still. That’s the Whole Story.

The gap between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields hit 0.42% on July 15, nudging up from 0.40% the day before and continuing a steady climb that has pushed the spread to its widest positive territory

The effective federal funds rate held at 3.62% on July 9, right where it’s been all week. No drama, no drift, no surprise. But in a rate environment that has moved dramatically over the past few years

The gap between 10-year and 2-year Treasury yields widened to 0.38% on July 9, the steepest reading in the recent trend and up from 0.31% just eight days ago. That’s a small number in absolute terms,

The effective federal funds rate has sat at 3.63% for six straight days, without so much as a rounding-error wobble. That kind of stillness is worth noticing, because it means the Fed’s policy intenti

The 10-year breakeven inflation rate ticked up to 2.24% as of July 6, just one basis point above the prior reading. That is not a dramatic move. But the steadiness of this number, hovering in a tight

The 10-year minus 2-year Treasury spread has held at 0.35% for two consecutive readings, capping a steady climb from 0.28% just two weeks ago. It doesn’t sound like much, but the direction and the des

The effective federal funds rate has sat at 3.63% for six consecutive trading days, unwavering. No drift, no signal. The Fed isn’t moving, and the market knows it.

The effective federal funds rate sat at 3.63% on July 1, unchanged for at least six consecutive days. That’s not a data point. That’s a statement.

The effective federal funds rate has sat at exactly 3.63% for six consecutive days. No drift, no wobble. Just a number that hasn’t moved.

The federal funds rate lower bound has been parked at 3.5% since at least late June, and there is no sign of movement. On the surface, that looks like a confident, patient central bank. But the stock

10Y-2Y Spread: 0.31% (normal, steepening)

The 10-year/2-year Treasury spread has held steady at 0.31% for two consecutive days, sitting comfortably in positive territory after spending much of the past few years deeply inverted. On the surfac

The federal funds rate lower bound has sat at 3.5% every single day so far in June 2026. No cut. No hike. Just a steady hold, and in monetary policy, steady can say just as much as a move.

10Y-2Y Spread: 0.34% (normal, modestly upward sloping)